The global situation intensifies market volatility, and Ethereum faces a critical moment.

Recently, the situation in the Middle East has escalated again, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has led to a rapid decline in risk appetite across the overall financial market. The crypto market is no exception. Ethereum (ETH), as the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization after Bitcoin, has recently maintained a price around $2,500, but there are already evident signals of unease within the market. This uncertainty stems not only from external shocks at the macro level but also reflects subtle changes in technical indicators and market sentiment. For traders, we are currently at a critical turning point where technical and situation-driven factors intersect.

The derivatives market hides warning signals: leveraged stacking and price decoupling.

According to market data, the Open Interest (OI) of Ethereum recently broke through $21 billion, approaching historical highs. However, unlike before, the current spot price of ETH is significantly lower than the levels seen during previous OI peaks, indicating that leveraged positions (whether long or short) may have accumulated in the market and have yet to be released.

This divergence between OI and price has historically been associated with severe liquidation waves. If capital continues to be trapped and the price cannot break through key ranges for a long time, it may trigger forced liquidations due to leverage, leading to intense volatility. Considering the increasing geopolitical risks, if global capital turns towards safe-haven assets, ETH will also be forced to face repricing pressure.

Dormant Whale Reawakens: Millions of Dollars in Funds Suddenly Stirring Market Attention

In addition to macro factors, a piece of news from on-chain activities has also put the community on edge. The on-chain tracking platform Whale Alert discovered that a pre-mined ETH wallet, which had been almost inactive since 2015, suddenly made a transaction recently. This wallet holds 2,000 Ether, which was originally transferred in at a total value of only $620. However, based on current prices, this asset’s value has now exceeded $5 million, an increase of 820 times.

The renewed activity of these dormant large holders is often interpreted by the market as a potential precursor to selling. Although the wallet owners have not explicitly stated their intention to sell assets, in the context of a sensitive market stage, any actions that may lead to selling pressure will be magnified, further affecting market sentiment.

(Source: hale_alert)

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Summary

The current market environment for Ethereum is not straightforward; it is influenced by external uncertainties from geopolitical factors, as well as internal risk signals from derivatives and on-chain activities. Under this dual pressure, the apparent stability of prices may only be a temporary illusion, and potential volatility could be imminent. For investors, it is crucial to maintain a high level of vigilance during this period, avoid excessive leverage operations, and closely monitor market dynamics and the subtle signs of on-chain capital flows.