1) usually historical volatility is fine for most types of analysis 2) if hist vol isn’t good enough use the option market and subtract out VRP, don’t use GARCH if there’s a smart market available - it’s always smarter than your model no matter how many NNs you have. 3) I prefer HARQ to GARCH but frankly it doesn’t matter much. There are very few cases where you don’t use existing markets or historical volatility. To give an example of this: You take BTCs or ETHs vol surface, and multiply by the ratio of historical vol in your shitcoin vs BTC or ETH. This will get you picked off a million times less than some forecast based model. Hist vol + market index options (what btc / eth are close to being) and you’re set. I would argue the actual pricing model used is a bit more detailed than this but this stuff trades so wide I wouldn’t be surprised if a large portion of participants quoted like this.
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Some thoughts on volatility:
1) usually historical volatility is fine for most types of analysis
2) if hist vol isn’t good enough use the option market and subtract out VRP, don’t use GARCH if there’s a smart market available - it’s always smarter than your model no matter how many NNs you have.
3) I prefer HARQ to GARCH but frankly it doesn’t matter much. There are very few cases where you don’t use existing markets or historical volatility.
To give an example of this:
You take BTCs or ETHs vol surface, and multiply by the ratio of historical vol in your shitcoin vs BTC or ETH. This will get you picked off a million times less than some forecast based model. Hist vol + market index options (what btc / eth are close to being) and you’re set.
I would argue the actual pricing model used is a bit more detailed than this but this stuff trades so wide I wouldn’t be surprised if a large portion of participants quoted like this.