Bitcoin price突破12万美元大关，创历史新高

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the $120,000 level strongly on July 14, setting a new historical high. This round of increase was driven by a dual resonance formed by active funds in the market and incremental funds from outside the market, breaking through the long-term consolidation range, with market bullish sentiment significantly heating up.

Breakthrough key range, funds and policies resonate to drive the market upward continuously

This week, Bitcoin has cumulatively risen by 9.08%, not only setting a new historical high but also breaking through the consolidation range of $90,000 to $110,000 that has formed since last November. On-chain data shows that over 30% of Bitcoins have been transferred within this range, which has long been regarded as a dense area for institutional accumulation and a pricing anchor for policy expectations.

This breakthrough is not only of technical significance but also establishes a market consensus on Bitcoin gradually becoming a strategic asset for the United States at a macro level. Especially in the context where politicians have repeatedly publicly expressed support for Bitcoin and advocated for the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve, this price range has evolved into a symbol of policy signals. Once this area is effectively breached, it signifies that the market structure has entered a new upward phase.

Institutional allocation continues to strengthen, ETF and mainstream assets resonate and evolve

The core driving force of this round of market trend comes from the deep changes in the capital structure. On the market side, the frequency of large transactions on major exchanges has significantly increased, the proportion of long-term holders continues to rise, the chip locking effect has strengthened, and the market selling pressure has significantly eased. At the same time, ETF funds continue to experience net inflows, providing solid off-market support for the market trend. According to public data, as of now, the net inflow of Bitcoin-related ETFs this month has reached $1.44 billion, and the overall management scale has surpassed $51 billion, becoming an important driving force for stabilizing and pushing up prices.

The maturity of the ETF channels has also led to the gradual entry of traditional institutional funds. Long-term funds, including pensions and mutual funds, are allocating Bitcoin through compliant channels, further enhancing the structural stability of the market, reducing volatility, and broadening the mainstream acceptance of assets.

The technical structure is robust, the trend continuity is strong, and short-term fluctuations are controllable.

Since breaking through the 100,000 USD level, Bitcoin's overall trend has remained strong. After the 110,000 USD level was broken with increased volume, the 120,000 USD level was also conquered due to the continued expansion of trading volume, indicating the persistence of a bullish dominance pattern. Currently, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a relatively high level, there are no obvious signs of overbought conditions, and the moving average system is clearly arranged, with the overall technical structure still supporting an upward trend.

In the short term, the market may still experience a pullback, especially considering the profit-taking by some funds, as well as the uncertainties brought about by geopolitical conflicts, central bank policy expectations, and the U.S. elections. Against this backdrop, it is advised that investors maintain flexibility in their positions, manage risks appropriately, and continue to monitor the medium-term trends to adjust their investment pace.

Future Outlook: Regulatory Push Accelerates, Market Continues with More Solid Fundamentals

Looking ahead to the market, as the pace of policy advancement accelerates, the foundation for maintaining market strength becomes increasingly solid. The ongoing "US Cryptocurrency Week" serves as an important window for policy implementation. Three key bills, including stablecoin regulation, division of regulatory functions, and restrictions on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), have entered the House of Representatives for review and are expected to complete voting within this week. Previously, the relevant bills passed in the Senate with a high vote, clearly stipulating the 1:1 reserve requirement for stablecoins and federal audit requirements, providing significant support for institutional capital inflow and the expansion of payment scenarios.

The substantial progress in policy advancement has provided a clear institutional support for Bitcoin to break through 120,000 USD, and has further boosted the market's confidence in the path to compliance and mainstream adoption. The current market situation is not only a technical breakthrough, but also a concentrated reflection of global capital re-evaluating the long-term value of crypto assets.

In the short term, attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation and market adjustment fluctuations. However, in the medium to long term, the mainstreaming of crypto assets has shifted from trend assessment to the realization phase. The next round of market breakthroughs may arrive earlier and faster than market expectations.