Crypto Assets Market Dynamics and Analysis

Macroeconomic Overview

Recently, the international trade situation has become tense. The head of state of a certain country announced a comprehensive tariff of 15% to 20% on most trade partners and plans to impose a 35% tariff on imports from Canada starting August 1st. This news has caused fluctuations in the currency market, but the stock market has remained relatively stable. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs, and a certain tech giant's market value has for the first time surpassed 4 trillion dollars.

The CEO of a large bank warned that the market has underestimated the threat of tariffs and predicted a 40%-50% chance of interest rate hikes by the central bank, which is significantly higher than market expectations. He believes that factors such as tariff policies, budget deficits, and global trade restructuring may bring inflationary pressures. There are differences within the central bank regarding the direction of policy, with the chairman suggesting a possible rate cut by the end of summer, but officials have differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation.

Investors are closely watching the upcoming second quarter earnings season. Although overall profit growth is expected to slow, some analysts believe the market is overly pessimistic, and a weaker dollar along with improved corporate earnings guidance could bring positive surprises.

Progress on Digital Assets Policy

The latest digital asset development policy declaration released in Hong Kong clearly incorporates digital assets into the global financial center strategy, promoting measures such as stablecoin licensing, on-chain physical asset integration, and tax incentives for tokenized assets. Industry institutions are actively participating in this transformation process, including cooperating with fund companies to issue tokenized ETFs, supporting the listing of compliant stablecoins, and constructing open and transparent blockchain infrastructure.

Crypto Assets Market Performance

Bitcoin has broken through a new high of $117,000, and traders believe that a volume breakout above $115,000 is needed to confirm an accelerated upward trend. On-chain data shows a significant increase in holdings by accumulation addresses, and analysts predict that large-scale sell-offs are unlikely before $130,900. Models indicate that there is a 60% probability that Bitcoin will continue to rise by 20% over the next two months, potentially reaching $133,000 in September.

Ethereum has broken through the $3000 mark driven by large-scale institutional buying. Historical data shows that in the previous three instances of breaking through $2800, it quickly rose to around $4000. Analysts believe that Ethereum has returned to the macro range of $2200-$3900 and is maintaining an upward trend.

The altcoin market is generally strengthening, with several newly launched tokens experiencing significant increases. A cross-chain project's token surged over 455% within 24 hours of its launch. NFT project tokens also saw substantial gains. It is worth noting that a new project is set to conduct its initial coin offering soon, and the market sentiment towards it is quite bearish.

Market Data Overview

• Bitcoin price: $116,539, year-to-date increase of 24.97%
• Ethereum Price: $2,968.02, Year-to-Date Drop: 11.02%
• Market Sentiment: Greed (72)
• Bitcoin market cap share: 63.8%
• Ethereum market cap share: 9.8%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: 1.136 billion USD

ETF Capital Flows

• Bitcoin ETF net inflow of $1.179 billion, reaching the second highest in history.
• Ethereum ETF net inflow of $383 million, also setting a historical second-high.

Recent Important Events

• A certain exchange will launch a new token perpetual contract
• Multiple projects will unlock a large number of coins in the coming days.
• The total assets of a certain public chain foundation reach $659 million, of which 76.7% are native tokens.
• A certain exchange completed its quarterly token burn, worth approximately $1.024 billion.
• Data analysis institutions point out that American buying has driven Bitcoin to new highs, and the bullish sentiment may not be over.
• Multiple institutions are expanding their Crypto Assets reserves or business scope.

The overall market shows a positive trend, with the prices of mainstream Crypto Assets reaching new highs and institutional participation continuously increasing. However, investors still need to be vigilant about potential risks and closely monitor macroeconomic changes and regulatory developments.