#美联储货币政策# The recent significant Fluctuation in the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September reminds me of the situation during the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the market's expectations for the Fed's policies were also erratic, sometimes thinking there would be a rate cut, and other times thinking there would be a rate hike, leaving everyone confused.

Looking back at history, the Fed's policy adjustments during crises are often gradual, with rarely any drastic sudden changes. This surge in interest rate cut expectations from 41.3% to 80.3% seems a bit overly optimistic. The non-farm data is indeed poor, but to judge that the economic situation has seriously deteriorated based on just one month's data is somewhat hasty.

I believe that the Fed is very likely to remain inactive in September and continue to observe changes in economic data. After all, inflationary pressures are still present, and hasty interest rate cuts could bring more risks. However, if subsequent data continues to weaken, the possibility of an interest rate cut before the end of the year is still quite high.

For investors like us who have experienced multiple cycles, it is most important to stay calm in the face of this uncertainty and not to be misled by short-term fluctuations. Regardless of how the Fed ultimately decides, the market will always find a new equilibrium. The key is to look at the long term, manage risks well, and seek opportunities amid the turmoil.