Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH rise 8%

According to Gate's market data, in mid-July, the price of Ethereum (ETH) once surged by 8% in a single day, and at the end of July, it briefly broke through the $3,900 key resistance level, setting a price high for the year. This spike further consolidated ETH's cumulative rise of 56.93% over the past 30 days, far exceeding Bitcoin's performance of 10.18% during the same period. Market sentiment and on-chain indicators jointly released strong bullish signals, laying the foundation for the market in August.

##Market sentiment and technical indicators provide dual support for bullish trend

• Investor confidence is high: the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has risen to 72 (greed zone), reflecting the ongoing accumulation of market optimism.
• Technical indicators are broadly bullish:
  • 90% of the 28 key indicators issued buy signals, including MACD, Exponential Moving Average (10 days), and multi-period Moving Average combinations.
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, not yet entering the overbought zone, indicating that there is still room for price to rise.
• Institutional funds continue to flow in: In July, Ethereum spot ETF net inflows reached 5 billion USD, significantly outperforming the net outflows of Bitcoin ETF, providing strong support for the price.

##Key Price Levels and Breakout Targets Currently, ETH is testing the resistance band of $3,880–$3,900 known as the "Banana Zone". This term specifically refers to the critical breakout range before ETH's explosive rise in history. If it successfully holds this position, the short-term targets will be achieved in phases:

1. First target: $4,000–$4,120 (high probability of being reached within 5 days);
2. Second target: $4,250–$4,613 (by the end of August);
3. Strong support range: $3,550–$3,600, if there is a pullback, it can be seen as a buying opportunity.

##Medium to Long-Term Forecast: Three Major Driving Factors for the Year-End Target of $7,000–$8,000

1. ETF and institutional demand: 65 institutions hold ETH reserves worth over 10 billion USD, coupled with the potential expectation of interest rate cuts in the US, liquidity will further expand;
2. Network Upgrade and Ecosystem Growth:

• The Pectra upgrade will optimize smart contract efficiency;
• The TVL (Total Value Locked) of the Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem approaches $200 billion, with DeFi and stablecoin issuance (market share of 51%) solidifying the underlying demand;

3. Historical Cycle Patterns: Analyst Marcus Corvinus pointed out that the current price structure highly aligns with the "expanding wedge" pattern of the bull markets in 2017/2021, and the year-end target of $7,000–$8,000 has technical support.

##Risk Warning: Volatility and Macroeconomic Uncertainty Despite the optimistic outlook, options market data reveals potential risks:

• The implied volatility of ETH reached 60% (Bitcoin at 30%), indicating that the price may experience significant fluctuations;
• December options indicate that the probability of ETH rising to $6,000 is only 30%, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards regulatory and macroeconomic events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

##Conclusion: August may be the "golden window" on the eve of a breakthrough. Ethereum has entered a critical window for breaking through $4,000 under the triple resonance of technical, funding, and sentiment aspects. If the $3,900 resistance effectively transforms into support, it will open up an upward space of $4,000–$4,600 in the short term, paving the way for a push towards the historical high of $8,000 by the end of the year. Investors need to closely monitor the U.S. non-farm data to be released in early August and changes in ETH spot ETF trading volume, as these factors could become catalysts for triggering the next wave of pump.