XRP encounters whale movements and a sharp decline in on-chain activity. Can long positions hold the key support level of $3.10? | XRP Price Prediction

Despite the long-term confidence indicated by the accumulation of 280 million XRP by whales over the past 10 days, the recent transfer of $54 million XRP to mainstream CEX has raised concerns about selling. On-chain data shows a big dump in the daily new addresses and volume, coupled with a high NVT ratio, leaving the XRP price in a battle between bulls and bears at the $3.10 support level.

▋Whale Coin Hoarding VS Exchange Inflow: XRP Bullish and Bearish Signals Intensify Blockchain monitoring shows that a mysterious wallet has transferred 16.8 million XRP (approximately $54 million) to mainstream CEX, causing market panic, which conflicts with the bullish signal formed by the 280 million XRP whale accumulation during the same period. Currently, the XRP price is $3.11 (down 10.3% in 24 hours), and the MACD death cross indicates a decline in momentum. If the $3.10 key support level is lost, it may test the strong support zone at $2.63.

▋On-chain activity plummets: XRP network growth faces big dump warning From July 18 to 22, XRP on-chain data experienced a strong surge, but on July 24, the number of new addresses plummeted to 1,899 (a drop of over 80%), and the daily trading volume shrank to 286,000 transactions. This collapse in on-chain activity directly impacts the price support logic. If new user growth cannot rebound quickly, this round of XRP bull market may lack fundamental support.

▋Valuation Divergence from Practical Value: XRP's NVT Ratio is High, Concealing Risks Although the MVRV Z-score has fallen from the overheated range to 3.49, the NVT ratio remains as high as 699 (measuring market cap/on-chain volume). This indicator continues to deviate from historical averages, indicating that the current XRP price has significantly departed from actual network utility, a divergence that usually triggers a deep correction or long-term sideways movement.

▋Bull-Bear Showdown $3.10: Key Turning Point in XRP Price Trend The technical analysis shows that XRP is currently in the key support level contest stage:

• If it holds above $3.10 and is accompanied by a recovery in on-chain activity, it may restart an upward trend.
• If the Whale's selling pressure continues and the network indicators deteriorate, it may trigger a leverage long liquidation cascade. Currently, we need to be vigilant about the change risk brought by the surge in exchange inventory and the fluctuations in OTC trading.

Conclusion: XRP is at a dual crossroads of technicals and on-chain data, with the $3.10 defense line set to be a touchstone for testing the strength of the bull market. Investors need to closely monitor three key on-chain signals: Whale wallet flows, the recovery progress of new network addresses, and changes in exchange net positions; these indicators will determine whether XRP can maintain key support during valuation corrections.