Bitcoin Price Market Analysis: On-chain Indicators Reveal the Market is in the Expansion Mid-Phase

The price of Bitcoin continues to fluctuate below the $120,000 mark, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing ($117,422-$119,197), currently reported at $118,600. Although the price movement is relatively stable, on-chain analysis shows that market sentiment is in a transitional phase. The key indicator, the Bitcoin Cycle Composite Indicator (IBCI), has returned to the "distribution zone" but has not reached its peak. Combined with the Puell Multiple and the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) below the median line, it indicates that the current bull run has not yet shown typical overheating signals. At the same time, the realized price for holders who have held for 1 day to 1 week (approximately $118,300) constitutes a short-term psychological support level, reflecting the strong confidence of new entrants in holding coins.

Bitcoin price fluctuates in a narrow range, market sentiment transitions steadily

Bitcoin price continues to consolidate below the psychological level of $120,000, despite a previous rally that pushed it to break through $123,000 and set a new all-time high, but the current upward momentum has somewhat waned. In the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency prices have fluctuated between a low of $117,422 and a high of $119,197, with the latest report indicating a price of $118,578.

Although the price movement remains relatively stable, the on-chain indicators show that the broader market sentiment is still in a transitional phase, with neither excessive euphoria nor panic selling among investors.

IBCI indicator returns to the PI distribution area, but has not reached overheating levels

CryptoQuant analyst Gaah recently highlighted key changes in the Bitcoin Cycle Composite Index (IBCI) — a composite tool used to track the phases of the Bitcoin market cycle.

According to Gaah's analysis, IBCI has returned to the "PI (Distribution)" zone, which has historically been associated with the late stages of a bull run. However, this return is moderate, with the index only reaching 80% of the upper limit of this zone, not attaining the complete saturation level typically observed at major market tops.

The moderate level of IBCI indicates that Bitcoin is in the expansion phase, but typical overheating signs have not yet appeared. Gaah points out that the two key sub-indicators that make up IBCI - Puell Multiple and Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) - are still below their median levels.

This indicates that the short-term speculative behavior and aggressive profit-taking commonly observed in the later stages of a bull run have not yet fully manifested in the current cycle. Therefore, while it is necessary to remain vigilant, the broader trend has not yet exhibited typical market top characteristics.

In particular, the P/E ratio has been lingering around the "discount zone" (Discount), indicating that even with Bitcoin recently hitting an all-time high, miner profitability remains at a moderate level. This points to a valuation structure: network participants have not yet entered the excessive stage that typically signals a market correction. Gaah emphasizes that the current state of IBCI reflects potential market strength supported by fundamentals, rather than speculative frenzy.

However, he also warned that the market is currently in a high-risk pullback zone and that attention should be paid to changes in retail investor behavior and miner activities.

Short-term holder cost line builds psychological support level

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha further pointed out that the Bitcoin price remains stable around the Realized Price of 1-day to 1-week holder UTXO age band (currently about $118,300). This metric is often seen as a reflection of the recent buyers' average cost basis and serves as a dynamic support level.

Taha stated that there has been no capitulation among the new entrants, indicating that recent market participants still hold confidence, which reinforces the current price range as a psychological and technical support area.

Conclusion: Comprehensive analysis of multiple on-chain data shows that although Bitcoin is facing potential short-term fluctuations, the overall market indicators (such as IBCI, P/E ratio, STH-SOPR) have not yet shown signs of overheating, indicating that we are still in a healthy expansion mid-term. The cost line for new entrants ($118,300) has formed effective support, coupled with limited profit pressure on miners, providing a buffer for the market. Investors need to continuously monitor the two key risk points of retail sentiment shift and changes in miner activity, but the fundamentals still indicate that there is mid-term upward potential.