Crypto Market Q3 2025 Report: Institution-Driven Selective Bull Run Has Started

1. The macro environment is warming up, with policy support boosting the market.

In the third quarter of 2025, the macro environment of the crypto market underwent fundamental changes. The Federal Reserve ended its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returned to a stimulative track, and the global regulatory framework for encryption became clearer. These three factors jointly propelled the crypto market into a structural re-evaluation phase.

In terms of monetary policy, the market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within 2025. As real interest rates decline from their highs, the valuation space for risk assets, especially digital assets, is being opened up. Fiscal policy is also making strides, with large-scale fiscal investments represented by manufacturing repatriation and AI infrastructure, which are unleashing unprecedented capital effects.

The shift in regulatory attitude is more critical. The SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change, and the approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first acceptance of yield-bearing digital assets by U.S. regulators. The promotion of the Solana ETF has opened up new imaginative possibilities. The SEC is working on establishing unified approval standards for token ETFs, indicating a shift in regulatory thinking from "firewalls" to "pipeline engineering."

The compliance race in the Asia region is also heating up, with financial centers such as Hong Kong and Singapore vying for development opportunities in areas like stablecoins and payment licenses. This suggests that stablecoins will upgrade from trading tools to an important component of payment networks, corporate settlement, and even national financial strategies.

At the same time, the risk appetite in the traditional financial market is showing signs of recovery. Tech stocks and emerging assets are rebounding in sync, the IPO market is warming up, and the activity level of retail platforms is increasing, all signaling a return of risk capital. Alongside AI and biotechnology, blockchain and encryption finance are re-entering the capital spotlight.

Under the multiple drivers of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, regulatory friendliness, and a recovery in risk appetite, a new bull run is brewing. This is not driven by sentiment, but rather a process of value re-evaluation driven by the system. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a more gentle yet powerful manner.

2. Structural Turnover: Institutions Lead the Next Bull Run

The most noteworthy change in the current crypto market is that chips are shifting from retail investors to long-term institutional investors. After two years of cleansing, users focused on speculation are gradually being marginalized, while institutions and enterprises aiming for allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The holding structure of Bitcoin says it all. The scale of Bitcoin purchases by listed companies has recently surpassed net purchases by ETFs. Companies view Bitcoin as a "strategic cash alternative" rather than a short-term allocation tool. Compared to ETFs, companies have greater flexibility and voting rights by directly purchasing spot Bitcoin, resulting in stronger resilience.

Financial infrastructure is also clearing obstacles for institutional capital inflows. The approval of the Ethereum staking ETF means that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The anticipated approval of the Solana ETF further expands the imagination. Once the staking yield mechanism is absorbed by the ETF, it will fundamentally change institutions' perception of encryption assets.

More importantly, enterprises are directly participating in the on-chain financial market. Bitmine's increase in ETH holdings and DeFi Development's investment in the Solana ecosystem represent that companies are building a new financial ecology with the thinking of "industrial mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout." This long-tail capital injection not only stabilizes market sentiment but also enhances the valuation anchoring ability of the underlying protocols.

In the field of derivatives and on-chain liquidity, traditional financial institutions are also actively positioning themselves. Solana futures on CME have reached new highs, and XRP futures trading is active, indicating that encryption assets have been incorporated into trading strategies. The entry of hedge funds, structured product providers, and others will fundamentally enhance the "liquidity density" and "depth" of the market.

At the same time, the activity of retail investors has significantly decreased. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decline, and the activity of early large holders has decreased, indicating that the market is in a "hand-over sedimentation period." Although the price performance is flat during this stage, it often nurtures the biggest market starting points.

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is also rapidly materializing. From JPMorgan to Robinhood, they are all expanding the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of encryption assets. This not only enhances the usability of encryption assets within the fiat currency system but also endows them with richer financial attributes.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is a deep expansion of the "financial commoditization" of crypto assets, and it is a reconstruction of the value discovery logic. What dominates the market is no longer emotion-driven short-term funds, but institutions and enterprises with long-term strategies and clear allocation logic. A institutionalized and structured bull run is brewing, which will be more solid, lasting, and thorough.

3. From General Surge to "Selective Bull Run"

The current "altcoin season" has entered a new phase: the broad market rally is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism following the rational return of the market.

From the structural signals, the mainstream altcoin assets have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair is rebounding, with large holders accumulating in the short term and frequent large on-chain transactions, indicating that the main funds are beginning to reprice primary assets. Retail investor sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low interference" environment for the next round of market activity.

But this time the altcoin market will not be "flying together", but rather "each flying on its own". ETF applications have become the anchor point of the new round of thematic structure. In particular, the Solana ETF has been regarded as the next "market consensus event". Asset performance will revolve around "whether there is ETF potential, whether there are real returns, and whether it can attract institutional allocation", no longer a comprehensive rise, but a differentiated evolution where the strong continue to get stronger.

DeFi is also an important arena in this round of "selective bull run". Users are shifting from "points airdrop DeFi" to "cash flow DeFi", with protocol revenue and stablecoin yield strategies becoming core indicators. Projects like Renzo and Size Credit attract capital inflow through structured yield products rather than relying on marketing hype.

Capital has also become more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored, with cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification becoming key factors. It is no longer the L1 public chains themselves that dominate the trends, but rather the infrastructure and composable protocols built around them that become the new core of valuation.

The speculative part is also shifting. While meme coins still have popularity, the "everyone pumps" phenomenon is no longer returning. Instead, a "platform rotation trading" strategy has taken its place, but it carries extremely high risks and lacks sustainability. Mainstream capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide continuous returns and have real users and strong narrative support.

In summary, the core of this round of altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be integrated into traditional financial logic". From ETF structural changes, to re-staking yield models, and the integration of RWA with institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is ushering in a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but rather an upgrade of it.

4. Q3 Investment Framework: Balancing Core Allocation and Event-Driven Strategies

The investment strategy for Q3 2025 must find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven localized bursts." A hierarchical and adaptive asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite for navigating volatility.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment of ETF inflows, corporate accumulation, and the Federal Reserve signaling a dovish stance, BTC demonstrates strong resilience and a capital siphoning effect. Even if it hasn't reached new highs yet, its chip structure and capital attributes determine that it is the most stable bottom asset in the current cycle.

Solana is undoubtedly the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. As the staking mechanism is expected to be incorporated into the ETF structure, its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting capital allocation. This narrative will drive SOL spot and its ecological tokens. From the current price level, SOL already has a strong cost-performance ratio and Beta elasticity.

In the DeFi sector, focus on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capability, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., can be used to capture relative returns using an equal-weight approach. These types of protocols often have "slow capital return and delayed outbreaks," and should be treated with a medium-term allocation mindset.

Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio, and it is recommended to limit it to within 5% of total assets, managing positions with an options mindset. Given that Meme contracts are often manipulated by high-frequency funds, it is appropriate to set clear stop-loss mechanisms and position limits. These types of assets can serve as emotional averaging tools, but should not be misjudged as the core of the trend.

Another key point in the third quarter is the timing of event-driven layouts. Signals such as Trump supporting crypto mining, the passage of the "Big Tech Act", Robinhood's foray into L2, and Circle applying for licenses indicate that the regulatory environment in the U.S. is changing rapidly. With the Solana ETF review approaching, a "policy + capital resonance" market is expected from mid-August to early September. These types of events should be laid out in advance to avoid high chasing traps.

In addition, attention should be paid to the momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, Robinhood's L2 construction may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and RWA integration; projects like $H and $SAHARA, supported by their roadmaps and communities, may become "hot spots" in the marginal sector. These early opportunities can be part of a high volatility strategy, but it is essential to control positions and adhere to risk management.

Overall, the Q3 investment strategy must abandon the "flooding" style of betting and shift to a mixed strategy of "anchored by core, winged by events". Bitcoin is the anchor, SOL is the flag, DeFi is the structure, Memes are the supplement, and events are the accelerator—each part corresponds to different positions and trading rhythms. In the new environment, the market is reshaping the valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real returns". Successful investment will depend on grasping the capital logic behind this round of changes.

V. Conclusion: Wealth migration is already on the way

Each round of bull and bear markets is essentially a periodic reshuffling of value reassessment, and true wealth migration often occurs quietly amidst chaos. Currently, a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real returns is brewing. The prologue has been written, waiting for a few who understand to enter the market.

The role of Bitcoin has fundamentally changed. It is gradually becoming a reserve component in the balance sheets of global enterprises, serving as a national-level inflation hedge tool. In the future, the biggest influence on its price will come from institutional buying decisions, allocations by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, and the repricing of the risk asset valuation system due to macro policies.

The infrastructure and assets that represent the next generation of financial paradigms are also completing the evolution from "narrative bubble" to "system takeover." Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, etc. represent how crypto assets are transitioning from "anarchic capital experiments" to "predictable institutional assets." This is not a continuation of a get-rich-quick game, but rather a pricing revolution that crosses asset boundaries.

The altcoin season is not a replay, but a transformation. The next market cycle will be more deeply linked to real earnings, user growth, and institutional access. Projects that can provide stable return expectations for institutions, attract stable funds through ETFs, and truly have RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" in the new cycle. This is an "elite" altcoin phase, a selective bull run that eliminates 99% of fake assets.

For ordinary investors, challenges and opportunities coexist. The current market appearance is still stagnant, but this is precisely the golden period for large funds to quietly complete their positions. The key is whether one stands on the correct structure. It is the reconstruction of position structure, rather than the randomness of violent gaming, that determines whether one can profit from the main upward wave.

The third quarter of 2025 will be the prelude to this wealth migration. Opportunities have arisen, but they wait for no one. Now is the time to seriously plan your position structure, sources of information, and trading rhythm. Wealth will not be at its peak.