Meaningful warnings from the author of the Bitcoin Standard

In an interview at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference, economist Saifedean Ammous made groundbreaking statements about Bitcoin's price cycle in addition to his new book. Following the Bitcoin Standard and Fiat Standard books, the economist published the Gold Standard, stating, "What would the world be like if fiat currency had never existed? I pursued this question. Instead of saying something new, I imagined how gold or another monetary system could develop in a universe where there was no fiat (itibari currency) system."

In the broadcast he participated in, Ammous responded to the question about central banks' gold purchases by saying, "Gold lacks liquidity, there is no international gold exchange infrastructure. However, Bitcoin is much more liquid. Countries that want to switch to gold will actually understand the value of Bitcoin better when they see the difficulties of transporting and exchanging gold."

He gave a quite clear answer to the question of whether the U.S. Treasury can evaluate the gold it holds at current prices and solve the enormous debt problem of approximately 37 trillion dollars: "No. Because the biggest asset of the U.S. is the money printing machine. Whether you value gold at 1 dollar or a trillion dollars, the result does not change. It would only be an accounting game."

"The BTC price cycle is a bit behind, but..."

In the interview, the Palestinian-Jordanian economist who also touched on the price cycle of Bitcoin was asked why the BTC price has not yet reached 200,000 dollars. Ammous stated, "Bitcoin is the fastest asset in history, expectations are high, but everyone is impatient. Every newcomer expects a 1000-fold increase. This is a process. The problem is the lack of intellectual courage and understanding among people." He further explained, "Generally, a peak is seen within 12-18 months after the halving (halving), while there is a perception that Bitcoin is somewhat lagging behind in this cycle. However, the price increase of BTC from 15,000 dollars to 112,000 dollars is quite significant."

"Are institutions buying Bitcoin ready for an 80% drop?"

Ammous stated regarding institutional investors, "Personally, I do not want Wall Street to buy in. But I cannot stop anyone; this process is inevitable." The economist noted that the increase in institutional purchases raises the risk, saying, "Especially companies that use leverage may not be able to withstand a potential 80% drop and warns: 'Bitcoin has previously dropped by 80%, it can drop again. If your business model cannot withstand this, change it immediately.'

Ammous stated that corporate purchases are rapidly increasing, particularly with companies like MicroStrategy aggressively buying BTC, "I would prefer individual investors to buy BTC at these levels, but corporate entries are inevitable and part of the system."

The Effect of Monetary Expansion on BTC

While it is discussed that a new wave of monetary expansion on the macroeconomic front could contribute to BTC, Ammous argued that Bitcoin fundamentally moves "at its own pace." According to the economist, although short-term liquidity waves may be effective, in the long run, Bitcoin represents a systemic transformation.

Ammous, who maintains his faith in Bitcoin, reiterated the advantages offered by decentralization and fixed supply. In his own words, Bitcoin is the "key for anyone who wants to break their mental chains." The author of The Bitcoin Standard emphasized that everyone who wants to survive in bear markets must accept this reality and think long-term.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.