The Frenzied Prediction Market: The Musk-Trump Battle Drives Strange Political Bets

Since the tensions erupted between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, the market has been in turmoil and social media has exploded with heated opinions about the so-called "Beautiful Big Bill." The clash between the current U.S. president and the richest person in the world has also driven the prediction market into a frenzy. A bet, with $134,277 at stake, has a 30% chance that the two sides will bury the hatchet before July. Betting Soars on the Breakup Between Musk and Trump — Wager 30% on Reconciliation in July This week, the world's richest man, Elon Musk — the force behind Tesla, SpaceX and the owner of X (formerly known as Twitter) — clashed with the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump. What triggered the confrontation? Musk vehemently condemned the "Big, Beautiful Bill" (BBB), calling it "an appalling disgrace" in a series of posts on his platform X. Musk targeted the bill, criticizing it as "a huge, unreasonable spending bill from Congress, filled with pork" and criticized the lawmakers who support it. He warned that it would increase the federal deficit and national debt. The market wobbled after his comments for reasons no one could explain, and bitcoin (BTC) dropped to just over $100,000 before bouncing back to $106,000 on June 8.

Trump retorted, stating that he will win the election without the help of Musk and bitterly accused him of the changes in the electric vehicle law (EV). He even suggested cutting billions of dollars in federal subsidies that Musk's businesses receive. Naturally, the discord has caused prediction markets like Polymarket to accelerate.

A Polymarket bet of $81,002 gives Musk a 9% chance of declaring his candidacy for the U.S. presidency in 2025. Another bet, with a volume of $596,843, assigns a 17% chance that he will establish a new political party by December 31, 2025, and a 7% chance that he will do so by the end of this month. The Musk-Trump ceasefire rate in July is 30%, while Trump apologizing to Musk on Monday remains below 0 at -1%. Meanwhile, Kalshi, a competing prediction market platform, is also getting in on the act with its own set of bets. Kalshi traders say there is a 40% chance that Trump will revoke Musk's security clearance. There is also a 12% chance that Musk will return to Trump's inner circle and a 24% chance that Musk will actually form the political party he mentioned during this heated exchange with the president.

The Musk-Trump feud has become a grand spectacle, attracting attention like a reality TV show with stakes of billions of dollars. While the market sways and prediction market websites buzz, millions of people remain glued to the theater of ego and insult. It is a mix of politics and mockery, and somehow, people can't look away. In a world overflowing with real issues, side shows still capture all the attention.