Is the Bitcoin bull run over? System traders: BTC is still in an upward trend, and the key fluctuation low point has not been broken.

Gate news, system trader Adam Bakay (@abetrade) stated that from a monthly and weekly timeframe perspective, as well as from a technical standpoint, Bitcoin (BTC) is still in an upward trend. He explained that the key fluctuation low points have not been breached, and the 365-day rolling volume-weighted average price (VWAP) was also adhered to during the pullback in April.

Nevertheless, he acknowledged that "the failure to set a historical high similar to the peak in 2021" is concerning—especially considering the increased holdings by institutions like BlackRock, which currently holds about 3.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.

It is precisely this divergence—strong interest from institutional investors and the market's difficulty in breaking through to the upside—that has made Bakay more cautious in recent weeks. "This is why I have been very cautious and most of my trades have been focused on the short term," he said.

His trading outlook mainly focuses on two potential technical scenarios: either reclaiming the $100,000 support area—"if the Middle East conflict does not escalate further, it is quite likely"—or dropping to the $97,000-$95,000 range, where strong technical support exists in the form of the 200-day moving average, local price structure, and 90-day rolling VWAP.

(Source: X, Trading View)

Nevertheless, Bakay clearly stated that he would not short the market. "Given my current position, I am not considering any short trades at the moment," he emphasized, adding that open interest is declining and we are beginning to see "clear signs of spot buying interest for the first time since the April lows." Meanwhile, the options market is sending early cautious signals: the 25 Delta risk reversal skew is around -5, not yet at panic levels, but the trend is worsening.

Regarding Ethereum (ETH), Bakay spoke candidly. "ETH was close to achieving its glory, but ultimately it was disappointing," he said. He attributed part of Ethereum's failure to the rapid spread of the hype surrounding the "Summer of DeFi 2025." "People became overly excited, and the market was bound to punish them," he quoted from a tweet he posted a few days ago.

He warned that the technical side of ETH is also worrying. "The last thing you want to see during a major market volatility like the one in early May is a price pullback to that area," he explained, adding that the next significant support level is around $1,800. On the daily chart, Ethereum is at the intersection of support levels – both the 90-day rolling volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and what he calls "key levels." However, like Bitcoin, Bakay believes that the short-term trend of Ethereum will largely depend on the development of the situation in the Middle East.

In terms of positions, ETH also shows signs of being oversold. However, Bakay believes that the high volatility of ETH options has led traders to choose to use spread strategies rather than making direct directional bets. "Current positions clearly indicate a potential upward reversal in perpetual contracts and spot contracts," he said.